Europol’s latest Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) sheds light on various crime trends across Europe, including digital content piracy. However, despite the significance of piracy in the online space, the report dedicates only a small section to the issue. What stands out is Europol’s prediction that demand for pirated services will decrease in the coming years—an assertion that has sparked discussion and skepticism.
The Current Piracy Landscape
According to Europol, piracy is increasingly shifting towards mobile apps and web-based streaming platforms, reflecting broader changes in how people consume content. One growing concern is the intersection between piracy and cybercrime, particularly the theft and resale of login credentials from legitimate streaming services. Tactics such as phishing scams and large-scale data breaches have made these stolen accounts a lucrative business in illicit markets.
A Declining Demand?
Europol suggests that the demand for pirate services may dwindle due to a combination of factors: the expansion of legal streaming platforms, improved accessibility, and increased enforcement efforts across Europe. This claim is particularly interesting given the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and the rising number of fragmented streaming services, both of which have historically driven users toward piracy.
While Europol insists that its projection is based on current trends and future expectations, critics have pointed out that the report references older studies, some dating back to 2020. Given the rapid evolution of the streaming industry—including the launch of major services like Disney+ and HBO Max after that data was collected—some argue that the prediction might not fully reflect today’s realities.
Contradictions and Clarifications
Adding to the uncertainty, a 2023 EUIPO report indicated that piracy was actually on the rise, seemingly contradicting Europol’s optimistic outlook. Following questions about its findings, Europol clarified that its conclusions were based on a broader analysis rather than historical data alone. Nevertheless, the presence of outdated sources in the report has led to confusion.
The Uncertain Future of Piracy
Europol’s SOCTA report presents a hopeful view of piracy’s trajectory, but the details remain open to interpretation. While enforcement measures and improved access to legal content could reduce piracy, the ongoing challenges of affordability and platform fragmentation suggest that demand may not decline as easily as predicted. Ultimately, whether Europol’s forecast holds true will depend on how both the industry and consumers adapt to the evolving digital landscape.
